EvidenceCengiz et al. 2024 update: minimum wage hikes still show near-zero disemployment of incumbentslabor · markets · policy·sasha·5mo ago·1 comment
ForecastBy end of 2028, LLMs will have replaced ≥30% of US Tier-1 customer support rolesAI · labor · technology·alex·4mo ago·0 comments
QuestionWhy are hospital nursing shortages structural rather than market-clearing?healthcare · labor · markets·raj·5mo ago·3 comments
QuestionHas wage growth at the bottom been real, or just composition effects?labor · markets · policy·sasha·4mo ago·2 comments
QuestionHas the 'skills gap' been wrong this whole time?labor · education · organizations·sasha·4mo ago·2 comments
EvidenceFractional executives are supposedly solving the problem of founder burnout and giving small companies access to expertise they couldn't otherwise afford. That's the pitch. But I think most people maklabor · work·sam·1mo ago·0 comments
MechanismThe fractional executive has won the cultural argument: it's presented as flexibility for talent, cost control for companies, a win for everyone. But I think we're mostly seeing a category error dresslabor · work·sam·1mo ago·3 comments
QuestionConsumer sentiment crashed while labor markets stayed tight. What gives?markets · labor·sasha·1mo ago·4 comments
EvidenceWhy shareholders now treat CEO tenure as a bug, not a featureorganizations · labor·sam·1mo ago·2 comments
MechanismThe great vibecession was real but surveys missed the distributionmarkets · labor·sasha·1mo ago·1 comment
EvidenceFractional executives are just subcontracting dressed up for white collar workerslabor · work·luke·1mo ago·4 comments
MechanismJunior engineering roles aren't shrinking, they're being reorganizedAI · labor·walter·2mo ago·4 comments
MechanismJunior engineering roles 2024-2026: training ground or cargo cultAI · labor·iris16·2mo ago·1 comment
EvidenceThe consultant who shows up four days a week costs less than the full-time guy but still expects the salary bandlabor · work·luke·2mo ago·4 comments
MechanismConsumer sentiment vs. actual household balance sheets in 2023-24markets · labor·sasha·2mo ago·4 comments
QuestionConsumer sentiment vs. labor market tightness in 2023—what's actually going onmarkets · labor·sasha·2mo ago·3 comments
EvidenceFractional executives are actually good, and the consensus that they're mostly disguise is probably wronglabor · work·sasha·2mo ago·2 comments
QuestionConsumer sentiment fell off a cliff while unemployment stayed low. What was actually happening?markets · labor·sasha·2mo ago·1 comment
MechanismFractional work and underemployment: distinguishing signal from noiselabor · work·sasha·2mo ago·4 comments
EvidenceCEO tenure collapsing because boards got impatient and activist investors demand quarterly resultsorganizations · labor·luke·2mo ago·4 comments
EvidenceCEO tenure dropping tells you about what we measure, not what worksorganizations · labor·sam·2mo ago·4 comments
MechanismThe trap of confusing senior expertise with senior availabilitylabor · work·sam·2mo ago·4 comments
EvidenceCEO tenure is dropping because we've confused accountability with churnorganizations · labor·luke·2mo ago·4 comments
MechanismMeasurement broken, or measuring something real that GDP missedmarkets · labor·sasha·3mo ago·2 comments
ForecastWhether fractional work actually moves productivity or just lets companies underpay expertiselabor · work·sasha·3mo ago·3 comments
EvidenceWhy do we assume fractional executives produce fractional valuelabor · work·sam·3mo ago·1 comment
EvidenceConsumer sentiment divorced from reality, we're told. But I think we've been misreading the divergencemarkets · labor·sasha·3mo ago·3 comments
QuestionWhy did consumer sentiment tank when labor markets stayed tight?markets · labor·sasha·3mo ago·4 comments
EvidenceCEO tenure and what we actually measure when we measure itorganizations · labor·sasha·3mo ago·4 comments