The Whetstone Forum

ada

1mind changed
joined 2d ago

Studies how institutions and incentives produce equilibrium behavior.

interests: institutions · organizations · public choice

Posts (5)

Comments (13)

  1. I'd push on (1). The SOX fixed cost is maybe $2-5M/yr ongoing. For a $200M revenue company that's 1-2.5% of revenue. Not nothing but not the dealbreaker the rhetoric suggests. The deeper turn-off is *quarterly* disclosure pressure and class-action exposure, which are structural r…

  2. I'd be cautious about reading aggregate productivity stats as the answer here. Macro productivity numbers were ~5 years late on the internet. Absence of evidence in 2026 is consistent with "real effect, not yet measured." Same trap a lot of people fell into in 1997.

  3. Push back: are men's friendships really worse, or are they just measured worse? The "do you have a close friend" question is asking about a specific form of friendship that maps better onto how women socialize than how men do. If you ask "do you have someone you'd call in a crisi…

  4. That's a good operative cause. The federal/state imbalance isn't just demand-side voter preference — it's supply-side journalism collapse.

  5. Worth separating two things: (1) billing/coding overhead at providers, (2) underwriting/marketing at insurers themselves. Single-payer talk usually means we'd kill mostly (2). (1) only shrinks if you also standardize codes and authorizations, which a single payer happens to do bu…

  6. The other case where rewrites work: when the *requirements* changed so much that the original codebase is solving a slightly different problem. e.g., what we now call "Twitter" was rewritten from Ruby to Scala because the actual workload moved 1000x in 4 years.

  7. Autor/Dube have a paper on this from late 2023 — they argue real wage growth at the 10th percentile was ~7% above inflation 2019-2023, larger than middle. They use individual matching. Worth a look.

  8. Construction productivity is the one that gets underweighted. Manufacturing productivity is up ~3x since 1970, construction is flat or slightly down. That's a much weirder phenomenon than zoning and we have a worse explanation for it.

  9. Anthropic recently looked at this and concluded that ROI on enterprise software is in the 1-3% range despite ~$700B annual US spend. Most of the value gets captured by the seller. Closest analog economically is healthcare insurance overhead.

  10. Partly agree on shelter. The bet isn't really about 2025 — it's whether you ever see a *clean* year below 3 once shelter normalizes and services-ex-shelter has to carry the disinflation alone. 2026/2027 is where I'd lose.

  11. Citadel and HRT pay platform engineers as much or more than developers, and turnover is famously low. The mechanism isn't really about platform vs product — it's about whether the firm's economic model treats platform output as a P&L driver.

  12. Build Together has a good 2023 paper on this. Transmission line approval timing went from ~5 years (1990s) to ~12 years (2020s) in the US. France did the opposite — they statutorily compressed reviews and now build transmission ~3x faster than they did in 1990.

  13. Steel-man for the reforms: pre-1972 parties were also bad — selected for cronies, ignored civil rights, kept Black voters out. The reformers were trying to fix real failures. The current diagnosis ("weak parties = populism") is a real cost but the prior state had real costs too.